Stanford Politics

2,700 tons of ammonium nitrate exploded in the Port of Beirut on August 4th, killing at least 200 people and wounding thousands more. The devastating effects of the explosion left more than 300,000 people stranded without homes. More than half of Beirut, Lebanon’s capital city, needs to be rebuilt or repaired. There is no information at this time suggesting that the explosion was intentional or anything but a catastrophic accident. The word “accident,” however, does not reduce the culpability of the Lebanese government. Criminal negligence kills, too. 

Less than one week after the explosion, former Prime Minister Hassan Diab announced that he would step down from his role as Prime Minister following pressure from the Lebanese people. Diab stated in his resignation speech that the blast was caused by corruption that is “bigger than the state.” Diab’s statement about rampant corruption in Lebanon rings true, but many refuse to laud his recent resignation as positive political change. Diab’s resignation has rather been interpreted by the Lebanese public as him taking the fall for the real power players in the country: President Michel Aoun of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri of the Amal Movement. The FPM and the Amal Movement, along with Hezbollah, entered into a political alliance in 2006 and now control the majority of the seats in the Lebanese Parliament. President Aoun and Speaker Berri have resisted calls to resign, and there is no indication that they will step down from power.

 Yesterday’s designation of Mustapha Adib as the country’s next Prime Minister has solidified Aoun and Berri’s positions, although Adib’s designation seems promising at first glance. Adib has served as Lebanon’s ambassador to Germany since 2013, and he may be perceived as new blood. In his acceptance speech today, he promised to spearhead the reforms necessary to resuscitate Lebanon’s economy and to restart negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which reached an impasse in July. Adib also visited Gemmayzeh, neighborhood close to the port which was severely damaged in the explosion, and chatted with residents there. He’s the first Lebanese political leader to do so. 

Yet hope in Adib’s appointment may be misplaced: after all, he is a member of Lebanon’s reviled political establishment. He served as an adviser to former Prime Minister Najib Mikati for twenty years, and he is viewed as having close relationships with the country’s main political parties, according to Al Jazeera. In today’s vote, Adib received about three-quarters of the support of Lebanese members of parliament (MPs), mainly from MPs who represent the FPM-Amal-Hezbollah alliance. Support from this powerful alliance means that Adib will ultimately have to answer to Aoun and Berri. Without their blessing, Adib will not be able to implement any major economic or political reforms – reforms that the two men and their parties have opposed for months. 

In many ways, the political aftermath of the Beirut explosion epitomizes exactly what is wrong with Lebanon’s political system: the country’s politicians are unwilling to reform, and the country’s citizens pay the price for their failings, time and time again. 

Throughout the country’s ongoing economic collapse, the “price” paid has been in the citizens’ hard-earned dollars. The Lebanese economy is effectively a “…regulated Ponzi scheme,” run by the country’s politicians and banks. The government’s financial malfeasance dates back to the 1990s, when the government went on spending spree after the civil war ended and leveraged the country’s future to foot the bills. Lebanon has been in a constant state of catch-up since then and is now the third most indebted country in the world. More recently, the government failed to implement the reforms that the IMF required in exchange for international aid. The economy finally came down on the heads of the Lebanese people last year. The effects have been disastrous; the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UNESCWA) reported last week that the country’s poverty rate has nearly doubled in one year, from 28% to 55%. The country’s currency has lost 80% of its value since this time last year, resulting in people losing their entire savings. At the same time, the cost of goods have skyrocketed. People have begun to barter clothing and household items for food and diapers. Lebanon’s economy entered hyperinflation this past July. 

The price of the government’s mismanagement this time around was hundreds of lives: the youngest victim of the explosion was only two years old. “My government did this,” reads graffiti on the side of the highway overlooking the destroyed port. Lebanon’s centennial is today, September 1, but for many Lebanese, there is little to celebrate. The loss that the Lebanese are experiencing is unimaginable, and the uncertainty that they face is daunting. “To be Lebanese is to be broken-hearted,” wrote Nasri Atallah in a recent article for GQ Middle East. The country’s economy is collapsing, its political system is failing, and, in the wake of the explosion, the Lebanese face a massive humanitarian crisis. 

Adib has no real mandate to bail out the sinking ship that is Lebanon, thanks to the constraints placed on him by the FPM-Amal-Hezbollah alliance. By resigning, President Aoun and Speaker Berri could usher in an era of political change that could bring Lebanon back from the brink. Real political change would entail a new, independent government, free from corruption and a sectarian power-sharing structure. Yet there is little faith that salvation is on the horizon. Lebanon’s political elite have gambled with the lives and wellbeing of their citizens for years; the explosion is only the most recent example of their carelessness. Aoun and Berri have swapped out the minor characters (Diab for Adib), but they continue to be the stars of the show. And for them, the show must go on. 

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Gabby Conforti and Katie Jonsson are members of the Stanford class of 2022. Together with two other friends, they organized a fundraiser to support emergency relief in Beirut after the tragic explosion. This coming weekend, they will collectively bike 280 miles (the length of going up and down Lebanon’s coastline) to raise money on behalf of three organizations that are doing life-saving work in Beirut: the Lebanese Red Cross, Baytna Baytak, and Egna Legna Besidet. 

To donate to their fundraiser, visit their GoFundMe (link here: https://www.gofundme.com/f/biking-for-beirut) or venmo directly to @Gabby-Conforti. To stay updated on their progress, follow their Instagram page: @bikingforbeirut or to reach out to them directly (conforti@stanford.edu) for further questions.