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s of April 18, 2020, Russia has a mere 36,793 confirmed cases of COVID-19 — significantly fewer than its western democratic rivals. With the United States exceeding 22,252 deaths, the United Kingdom exceeding 12,107, and France exceeding 15,729 (to name just few countries) Russia’s 313 deaths emerge as a success story. For Vladimir Putin, keeping the crisis at bay could be game-changing for the future of his presidency and the extent of his authoritarian hold over Russia. If Putin can keep COVID-19 from escalating into disaster in Russia, it could be a very strong argument for the strengthening of his power in the country and the evidence he needs in order to prove that Russia (and the rest of the world) can only be efficiently managed with an iron grip. As said by Andrey Kortunov, director-general of the Russian International Affairs Council, “as far as the Russian leadership is concerned, this crisis confirms its worldview that the Western systems are inefficient, and that the liberal political model simply can’t cope.” 

Putin has spent his years as president and prime minister of Russia quietly consolidating his power behind the scenes through his strengthening of the Russian secret police and FSB and technological advancements in facial recognition and crowd control to recreate the Soviet police state, and the coronavirus pandemic has thrust his security measures into the boxing ring; now, the world is watching to see just how well Putin’s police state can perform under pressure. His technological control over his citizens has already proven useful: In Moscow, face-tracking cameras identified man violating the enforced quarantine after having traveled on a plane from Italy with someone who tested positive for COVID-19.

The coronavirus pandemic has also provided the perfect blank check with which Putin can pass the authoritarian measures he’s been building up to for years, including abolishing term limits and postponing elections, with essentially no repercussions. Much of the public has little time to keep track of Putin’s masterful puppeteering when their lives are at risk and day to day routines completely upheaved. Putin’s dangerous dance with the Russian public has long been playing out like this, with Putin promising a stable and strong country and the Russians giving up aspects of their civil liberties and freedoms in return; now, this is the ultimate performance test. If Putin can live up to the promises of prosperity that he has made to the Russian people in a time of crisis, this could become a justification for unprecedented levels of consolidation on his end and an even more dramatic democratic backsliding in Russia.

A rising authoritarian overreach justified by the coronavirus pandemic is not necessarily unique to Russia, as oppressive regimes around the world have taken advantage of the inefficiency and incompetent responses from western democracies to push the boundaries of their citizens’ privacy and strengthen their surveillance states. The world is no longer focused on which economy is performing better, or who has a higher standard of living, or the most civil liberties — the spotlight is on world leaders that can best contain the virus, regardless of how they choose to go about it. Even some of the historically most stable democracies have begun to lean into dangerous territory as more and more restrictions are put onto civilians, and on civil rights and liberties. “When somebody’s president of the United States, the authority is total,” Donald Trump stated in an April 13 press briefing. “And that’s the way it’s got to be. It’s total.”

In the U.S., the Justice Department requested massive new powers from Congress, such as the ability to detain people indefinitely without trial and eliminate legal protection from asylum seekers. While the measures were not passed in their extremity, modest versions of the proposals were submitted; even democratic institutions are beginning to test the waters of expansions of power. Similarly, in the United Kingdom, a bill was approved in Parliament allowing government ministries to detain and isolate people indefinitely, as well as ban protests and shut down airports with little oversight. While the U.K. has stated that these expansions of power are “simply temporary,” democracies are taking unprecedented measures into uncharted territory, while only giving authoritarian regimes more justifications for abuses of power. After all, authoritarian measures of control that would normally be harshly criticized are being praised for flattening the curve of COVID-19 and reducing the spread. 

China was quick to launch a propaganda campaign accrediting its ability to control the spread of the virus towards its superior one party system, with Moscow in tow, quick to point out the inefficient and stagnated decision making that allowed the virus to wreak havoc on the West. In an appearance in parliament three weeks ago, Putin once again pushed for a proposal that would extend his rule into two additional six-year terms, and he cited the current pandemic as evidence that Russia is in dire need of his leadership now more than ever. This means there’s a lot on the line for Putin and his regime to succeed, and there is little doubt Putin will go to great lengths to ensure it does — even if it means rewriting reality. Several medical professionals have expressed concern over the seeming lack of coronavirus cases appearing in Russia, with many warning that Putin is not above manipulating the numbers for political purposes. In striking break of protocol, even the mayor of Moscow has warned that the number of COVID-19 cases in Russia is likely much higher than the numbers being reported. Some have drawn parallels to the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster in Soviet Ukraine, in which the Soviet government undertook a massive coverup to keep Soviet citizens and the outside world from knowing the true extent of the nuclear fallout. If one is to use the Soviet response to Chernobyl as a parallel to Putin’s coronavirus coverup, it’s important to remember that Gorbachev failed miserably and the disastrous repercussions rocked the Soviet Union to its core. 

If Putin is more successful than his predecessors in controlling the public health pandemic in his hands, he may come out of this crisis more powerful than ever before and with more leverage in the ideological battle he’s been waging against the West. If he isn’t, he could face a serious threat to his seemingly unshakable grip on the throne. The Soviet Union’s fatal mistake when dealing with the Chernobyl crisis was underestimating the power of humanity’s survival instincts. When it came down to it, the fear of dying a gruesome, radioactive death outweighed the Soviet people’s fear of its own government, and the protests against the government’s handling of Chernobyl quickly escalated into a rejection of Soviet rule completely. If Putin fails to contain the virus, his regime may face a similar fate as public opinion turns against him more than ever.

On May 1, 1986, the May 1st celebration in honor of International Workers Day was held in downtown Kyiv according to schedule. Soviet citizens milled about, enjoying the festivities, blissfully unaware of the radioactivity that hung in the air. On May 9, 2020, Russia’s annual Victory Day parade is scheduled to occur in Moscow. Putin has not yet made an announcement cancelling the parade, despite the ban on large public gatherings in Moscow. Has Putin learned from the mistakes of the past or will history repeat itself?

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Catarina Buchatskiy, a freshman, is a staff writer for Stanford Politics.