Stanford Politics

One of the most contentious and (seemingly) often written about debates in current American political science is whether the Democratic Party is creating an “Emerging Democratic Majority” (EDM). The basic theory is that the Democratic Party can/will develop demographic edge that will lead to their electoral domination of Republicans if they can craft a coalition of well-educated liberals, single or working women, young people, African-Americans, and especially the growing population of Hispanic Americans, Indeed, demographic trends seem to suggest that if current voting behavior remains the same, the Democrats will be well positioned to comfortably hold the White House until the Republican Party undergoes a massive reform.

So should Democrats celebrate this development, nominate Bernie Sanders, and ride off into the sunset in their Priuses? No. On the contrary, the Democratic Party is coming dangerously close to squandering this gradually developing EDM. Fundamentally, the Democratic Party needs to make a more convincing case that it is friendly to and supports small business, and it needs to do a better job of fighting for the votes of Appalachian and Southern whites.

Clearly, the Democrats have yet to realize any putative EDM victory. Their drubbing in the House and Senate elections in 2014 suggests that the Democratic coalition today — while it may provide at most a slight edge in presidential elections — has a long way to go before it can help build a Congressional majority. A true EDM will either eliminate the midterm drop-off in Democratic votes or (more likely) develop such a large Presidential majority that Republican gains in the midterms will be insufficient to break Democratic control. Developing a coalition that minimizes Democratic losses during midterm elections is key to realizing an EDM. Otherwise, the Democrats risk falling into a situation like the 2016 House elections, from which it is likely impossible to produce Democratic majority.

So where’s the weak point? There are two, actually. First, and most critically, young voters aren’t guaranteed to be Democrats. Among under-30 voters, Bush tied Gore in 2000, and the 60–40 majority Democrats maintain in this demographic group was practically identical in 2012, 2008, and 2004. Looking back farther in history, even when the Democrats nominated young, comparatively leftist candidate (George McGovern) in 1972, they still lost the under 30 demographic to Nixon. Young voters are more open minded than older voters on a statistical level, but a war or a recession could easily turn them against the current occupant of the White House. Such an event could wreck the EDM all by itself because the political attachments that voters form while young can often affect their political affiliations for the rest of their lives.

Second, another weakness of the EDM is the belief that minorities are reliable Democratic voters. Polling suggests that greater portion of Hispanic voters prioritize education and the economy than other issues such as immigration. Although it is doubtful that many Hispanic voters will support Republican candidates, especially those making racist statements about them, it seems likely that the establishment wing of the GOP will eventually purge the party standard-bearers of its nastiest elements, and then some form of immigration reform can be passed (even if Donald Trump is nominated in 2016, a disaster for down-ticket Republicans will likely spur a substantial effort on the part of GOP elites to prevent a similar candidate in future). While Democrats may reap some form of gratitude support from Hispanic voters if the party can take credit for meaningful immigration reform, eventually Hispanic voters may be swayed by the regular debates over the state of the economy and of education. A similar pattern may eventually play out with left-leaning Asian-American voters, too. Asian and African-American constituencies in California have already experienced tension over the divisive issue of affirmative action and, if skillfully exploited by the GOP, this could eventually become a wedge issue. Due to rapidly changing attitudes towards same-sex marriage among younger Americans, opposition to LGBTQ equality may eventually dwindle in the GOP and the work of the Democratic Party to fight for same-sex marriage may fade in the minds of future same-sex couples.

So how can the Democratic Party ensure that its support among minorities is more than temporary? A stronger case for why the Democratic Party is serious about helping small businesses would be a good place to start. Relatively recent data suggests that immigrants are about twice as likely as native-born citizens to start their own business. Resolving the exclusionary effects of occupational licensing requirements in states like California (which has some of the most burdensome rules in the country in this regard) will make it easier for businesses to start and succeed. After all, I doubt my health will be seriously endangered by a barber without a license. Furthermore, although the Democratic Party ought to preserve its focus on consumer and worker health and well-being, it can do a better job explaining the rigor with which it urges new regulations. Expanding and publicizing the use of cost-benefit analysis at all levels of government will make government regulations more palatable and quite possibly more appropriate. These are but two parts of a suite of efforts the Democratic Party ought to make to expand its appeal among hard working business owners.

Besides reinforcing its hold on new voters, the Democratic Party should do a better job holding onto its traditional Appalachian and Southern white voters. Although the Democratic coalition President Obama put together was quite successful in winning two presidential elections, it proved devastating for the Democratic Party in 2014 in much of the South. Although fragments of Democratic officeholders are on political life support in Kentucky and West Virginia (Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear and West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin come to mind), most of the South has seen a plummet in Democratic support.

Working-class white support is a potent insurance policy against low minority Democratic support in states like Ohio and could be a key part of putting together Congressional majorities. A downright embarrassing oversight from the current Democratic discussion of addressing the genuine crisis of climate change is the lack of a realistic plan to help coal miners’ transition to different jobs and industries. If the Democrats cannot put together a convincing argument for these voters and others who will feel left behind, Congressional positions like Joe Manchin’s West Virginia senate seat will be easy Republican pickups in 2018, and the Democratic Party may well become locked out of these states for decades.

Although it may seem like a long time ago, the Democratic Party controlled both houses of the Alabama State Legislature as recently as when many students attending Stanford were in high school (2010). By making two big pushes to reinforce the Democratic coalition, the EDM may be realized. However, if the Democratic Party idly waits for demographic change to vanquish its rivals, it risks being doomed to minority status by a sudden change in the loyalties of any fraction of its complex support coalition.

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Caleb Smith, a junior studying public policy, is a staff writer at Stanford Political Journal.